ACUS02 KWNS 291730
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and
sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central Plains
vicinity on Tuesday. Additional strong to severe storms capable of
producing hail are possible across parts of Minnesota into far
western Wisconsin.

...Central High Plains east to central parts of Kansas/Nebraska...
As a mid-level short-wave trough advances northeastward through the
day and begins affecting the central High Plains area, scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development is expected.  Though convection
will initially occur within what is expected to be only a weakly
unstable environment near and west of the Front Range, more robust
storms are expected to evolve nearer a lee trough, expected to
reside over the eastern Colorado vicinity by late afternoon.

While shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, modest
mid-level west-southwesterlies atop low-level southeasterlies will
provide a kinematic environment sufficient to allow a few updrafts
to organize, with hail/wind near or in excess of severe levels
possible with a few of the stronger cells.  Some upscale growth is
expected into the evening, as a low-level jet increases, likely
allowing storms to persist and shift into the more unstable airmass
anticipated at lower elevations.  This may allow some severe risk to
linger into the evening, before storms eventually weaken diurnally.

...Northern Iowa and Minnesota, and into western Wisconsin...
A mid-level short-wave trough is progged to be crossing the eastern
Dakotas early in the day, and will move into Minnesota during the
afternoon.  Near an associated/weak surface trough, storm
development is expected as afternoon destabilization results in
mixed-layer CAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.  With some
enhancement to the mid-level west-southwesterlies associated with
the upper system, a few stronger/sustained storms are expected to
evolve, with potential for a few instances of hail in excess of
severe levels.  This potential should peak through late afternoon,
and then is expected to diminish through the evening as storm
intensity subsides gradually.

..Goss.. 05/29/2023

$$