ACUS02 KWNS 091732
SPC AC 091730

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z


Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening over parts of Kansas and Missouri.  Severe
gusts will be the primary hazard.

...KS into the lower MO Valley...
A mid-level trough over the northern Great Plains will move east to
the Upper MS Valley by early evening.  A surface front draped from
the Upper Great Lakes into the central Great Plains will slide
southeastward during the day-2 period.  A residual plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer, will
likely inhibit storm development along the front until mid-late
afternoon.  Rich low-level moisture from near/east of I-35 in KS
into MO will contribute to a very unstable to extremely unstable
airmass by late afternoon.  One of the primary limiting factors is
the modest deep-layer shear (storm-organization potential) shown in
model guidance.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
along the front by late afternoon into the evening.  The presence of
steep low- to mid-level lapse rates will favor intense downdrafts
with the stronger cores and isolated to widely scattered severe
gusts are possible.  One or two linear clusters may evolve during
the evening and push east-southeast across the lower MO Valley and
parts of KS into northern OK Monday night but with a diminishing
severe hazard.

...IL into the lower OH Valley...
A thunderstorm complex will likely be ongoing Monday morning across
the southwest Great Lakes as a veering west-southwesterly LLJ
weakens during the morning.  A few strong thunderstorms are possible
prior to thunderstorms weakening by mid morning.  It is unclear
whether the ongoing activity regenerates with an uptick in severe
potential by midday into the afternoon across parts of the lower OH
Valley and eventually into parts of TN.  The eastern extent of steep
(7-8 deg C/km) 700-500 mb lapse rates will encompass IL into western
KY.  Isolated strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage may
accompany this semi-organized activity during the day.  Model
guidance differs whether additional storms will move into the area
along a front during the evening.  A hail/wind hazard may develop if
this scenario occurs.  This activity would potentially push
southeastward into the lower OH Valley late in the evening into the

...Southern High Plains...
The western extent of a moisture reservoir over the southern Great
Plains will become moderately unstable by mid-late afternoon near a
dryline/lee trough.  Recent convection-allowing model guidance
indicates at least widely spaced to isolated thunderstorms are
possible from the OK/TX Panhandles into the South Plains.  Upwards
of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE is possible over a portion of the TX/OK
Panhandles with weaker CAPE noted with classic inverted-V profiles
farther southwest.  The risk for isolated hail/severe gusts (ranging
from 60-70 mph) will likely peak during the early evening and storms
will diminish by sunset.

..Smith.. 08/09/2020