ACUS02 KWNS 020600
SWODY2
SPC AC 020558

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are most likely on Tuesday from western
Texas into parts of Nebraska.

...Central and Southern Plains...
Upper pattern early Tuesday morning will likely feature
western/central CONUS troughing and eastern CONUS ridging. A
shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing is
forecast to progress northeastward through the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest during the period. Enhanced mid-level flow
accompanying this wave will spread eastward as well, with the
strongest flow concentrated across the central Plains during the
late afternoon/early evening.

Surface pattern early Tuesday morning should feature a low over
central ND, with a cold front extending from this low
south-southwestward into the southern High Plains. Primary low over
ND is forecast to progress northeastward into far northwestern
Ontario throughout the day, with the attendant cold front moving
eastward across the northern and central Plains. Only modest
eastward progression is anticipated across the southern Plains. By
00Z, guidance suggests this cold front will extend southwestward
from the low near the southern Saskatchewan/Ontario border to
another weak frontal low over the eastern ND/SD, continuing
southward to another low in central KS. A dryline will extend from
the central KS low back southwestward into the southeast NM/TX
Permian Basin vicinity.

Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing along
the length of the front early Tuesday morning, with at least some
potential for these showers and thunderstorms to persist into the
early afternoon across the warm sector over the central Plains. Even
so, the airmass is still forecast to destabilize ahead of the cold
front and dryline across the central and southern Plains, fostered
by a relatively narrow corridor of low to mid 60s dewpoints and cold
mid-level temperatures. Initial development along the front is
anticipated along and just ahead across the central Plains, where
long hodographs and cold mid-level temperatures will support the
potential for some very large hail. A short-lived, supercell mode
will transition to a more linear mode as strong forcing for ascent
persists over the region, with damaging gusts and isolated hail
remaining possible. Given the modest low-level moisture and
southerly low-level winds, some tornado potential exists. However,
this threat should be limited by the quick transition to linear mode
and slightly backed and weaker mid-level flow.

Late afternoon/early evening storm development appears probable
farther south along the dryline, although with lower overall
coverage than areas farther north. Vertical shear will decrease with
southern extent, with supercells most likely from the eastern TX
Panhandle into western OK. Large hail and damaging gusts are the
primary severe risks. However, there should be a narrow corridor of
low tornado potential from the TX Panhandle/western OK border
vicinity southward into southwest TX, where favorable low-level
moisture and moderate southerly surface winds will overlap.

..Mosier.. 10/02/2023

$$