← Previous March 18, 2024 11:55 AM
ACUS02 KWNS 181657 SWODY2 SPC AC 181655 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A cut off low will start to slowly drift east across Arizona on Tuesday which will bring scattered thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere in the CONUS, cool and dry/stable conditions are expected. Diurnal thunderstorms are expected near the upper-low across Arizona and vicinity on Tuesday as valley locations warm into the 60s and the mountains warm into the 50s, generating around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Steep lapse rates amid the cool temperatures aloft will support moderately strong updrafts. However, where these storms are most likely, shear will be very weak. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms are expected. A few thunderstorms are possible along the mountains from southern California into the central Sierra, but once again, shear should remain too weak to support organized thunderstorms and an appreciable threat for severe weather. ..Bentley.. 03/18/2024 $$