← Previous March 18, 2024 11:55 AM

ACUS02 KWNS 181657
SWODY2
SPC AC 181655

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A cut off low will start to slowly drift east across Arizona on
Tuesday which will bring scattered thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere
in the CONUS, cool and dry/stable conditions are expected.

Diurnal thunderstorms are expected near the upper-low across Arizona
and vicinity on Tuesday as valley locations warm into the 60s and
the mountains warm into the 50s, generating around 500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Steep lapse rates amid the cool temperatures aloft will support
moderately strong updrafts. However, where these storms are most
likely, shear will be very weak. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms
are expected.

A few thunderstorms are possible along the mountains from southern
California into the central Sierra, but once again, shear should
remain too weak to support organized thunderstorms and an
appreciable threat for severe weather.

..Bentley.. 03/18/2024

$$