← Previous October 2, 2023 12:58 AM
ACUS02 KWNS 020600 SWODY2 SPC AC 020558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely on Tuesday from western Texas into parts of Nebraska. ...Central and Southern Plains... Upper pattern early Tuesday morning will likely feature western/central CONUS troughing and eastern CONUS ridging. A shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing is forecast to progress northeastward through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest during the period. Enhanced mid-level flow accompanying this wave will spread eastward as well, with the strongest flow concentrated across the central Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. Surface pattern early Tuesday morning should feature a low over central ND, with a cold front extending from this low south-southwestward into the southern High Plains. Primary low over ND is forecast to progress northeastward into far northwestern Ontario throughout the day, with the attendant cold front moving eastward across the northern and central Plains. Only modest eastward progression is anticipated across the southern Plains. By 00Z, guidance suggests this cold front will extend southwestward from the low near the southern Saskatchewan/Ontario border to another weak frontal low over the eastern ND/SD, continuing southward to another low in central KS. A dryline will extend from the central KS low back southwestward into the southeast NM/TX Permian Basin vicinity. Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing along the length of the front early Tuesday morning, with at least some potential for these showers and thunderstorms to persist into the early afternoon across the warm sector over the central Plains. Even so, the airmass is still forecast to destabilize ahead of the cold front and dryline across the central and southern Plains, fostered by a relatively narrow corridor of low to mid 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures. Initial development along the front is anticipated along and just ahead across the central Plains, where long hodographs and cold mid-level temperatures will support the potential for some very large hail. A short-lived, supercell mode will transition to a more linear mode as strong forcing for ascent persists over the region, with damaging gusts and isolated hail remaining possible. Given the modest low-level moisture and southerly low-level winds, some tornado potential exists. However, this threat should be limited by the quick transition to linear mode and slightly backed and weaker mid-level flow. Late afternoon/early evening storm development appears probable farther south along the dryline, although with lower overall coverage than areas farther north. Vertical shear will decrease with southern extent, with supercells most likely from the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary severe risks. However, there should be a narrow corridor of low tornado potential from the TX Panhandle/western OK border vicinity southward into southwest TX, where favorable low-level moisture and moderate southerly surface winds will overlap. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2023 $$