244 ACUS02 KWNS 091732 SWODY2 SPC AC 091730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening over parts of Kansas and Missouri. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...KS into the lower MO Valley... A mid-level trough over the northern Great Plains will move east to the Upper MS Valley by early evening. A surface front draped from the Upper Great Lakes into the central Great Plains will slide southeastward during the day-2 period. A residual plume of steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer, will likely inhibit storm development along the front until mid-late afternoon. Rich low-level moisture from near/east of I-35 in KS into MO will contribute to a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass by late afternoon. One of the primary limiting factors is the modest deep-layer shear (storm-organization potential) shown in model guidance. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening. The presence of steep low- to mid-level lapse rates will favor intense downdrafts with the stronger cores and isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible. One or two linear clusters may evolve during the evening and push east-southeast across the lower MO Valley and parts of KS into northern OK Monday night but with a diminishing severe hazard. ...IL into the lower OH Valley... A thunderstorm complex will likely be ongoing Monday morning across the southwest Great Lakes as a veering west-southwesterly LLJ weakens during the morning. A few strong thunderstorms are possible prior to thunderstorms weakening by mid morning. It is unclear whether the ongoing activity regenerates with an uptick in severe potential by midday into the afternoon across parts of the lower OH Valley and eventually into parts of TN. The eastern extent of steep (7-8 deg C/km) 700-500 mb lapse rates will encompass IL into western KY. Isolated strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage may accompany this semi-organized activity during the day. Model guidance differs whether additional storms will move into the area along a front during the evening. A hail/wind hazard may develop if this scenario occurs. This activity would potentially push southeastward into the lower OH Valley late in the evening into the overnight. ...Southern High Plains... The western extent of a moisture reservoir over the southern Great Plains will become moderately unstable by mid-late afternoon near a dryline/lee trough. Recent convection-allowing model guidance indicates at least widely spaced to isolated thunderstorms are possible from the OK/TX Panhandles into the South Plains. Upwards of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE is possible over a portion of the TX/OK Panhandles with weaker CAPE noted with classic inverted-V profiles farther southwest. The risk for isolated hail/severe gusts (ranging from 60-70 mph) will likely peak during the early evening and storms will diminish by sunset. ..Smith.. 08/09/2020 $$
