ACUS02 KWNS 280453
SPC AC 280451

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Great Plains vicinity...

A broad upper trough will be in place over the western half of the
CONUS on Wednesday. A couple of weak shortwave impulses within the
larger-scale trough will lift north/northeast over the Plains
through the period. Deep-layer southerly flow will maintain 60s
dewpoints over much of the south-central U.S., and extend as far
north as eastern NE/SD. A cold front is forecast to shift
east-southeast across the northern/central Plains during the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected along the front from central SD/NE into KS by late
afternoon/early evening. Weak to moderate instability and modest
vertical shear will be in place, but strong warm advection will
likely result in widespread cloudiness and areas of showers across
the region throughout the period. Additionally, forecast soundings
indicate capping around 850 mb will lead to elevated convection
while deep-layer southerly flow will favor training convection
and/or storms becoming undercut by the front. While a couple of
strong storms could develop briefly, overall severe potential
appears too limited/uncertain to include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 09/28/2021