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ACUS01 KWNS 011629
SPC AC 011627

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z


Isolated large hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible from about 2 to 10 PM MDT in eastern New Mexico to far west

...Eastern NM and far west TX...
A plume of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s has
enveloped much of eastern NM into west TX and will support a more
buoyant air mass later this afternoon relative to yesterday. But the
presence of low-level stratus this morning has slowed boundary-layer
heating and will temper MLCAPE values to an extent. Still, a
confined corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should develop where
cloud breaks are evident across southeast NM into the TX
Trans-Pecos. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most probable
over the higher terrain in this region and should regenerate from
mid-afternoon through at least early evening. While deep-layer
vertical shear should be modest across much of the area, a narrow
zone of effective bulk shear approaching 30 kts should develop in a
portion of east-central/southeast NM where low-level
south-southeasterlies persist beneath moderate mid-level
southwesterlies. This should yield potential for a few slow-moving
supercells, although there is uncertainty in just how warm the
boundary layer will actually get where the better shear environment
exists. Even so, isolated large hail and locally strong gusts should
be the main threats, with localized severe gusts tending to focus
farther south into the Trans-Pecos where surface heating is greater.

..Grams/Bentley.. 10/01/2023