ACUS01 KWNS 191628
SWODY1
SPC AC 191626

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts
of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening.

...Southeast this afternoon/evening...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving east across the southern Appalachians.  This feature will
reach the VA/NC coast early tonight.  Farther northwest, a closed
midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over
the Great Lakes and OH Valley.  An associated surface cold front
will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern
Appalachians.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. 
Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little
larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. 
Additional storm development will be associated with the front and
orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians.  Overall
weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized
storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally
severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

...TX through tonight...
--No change needed to previous forecast discussion--
Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor
thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre
Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a
couple of supercells.  However, it is not clear that storm motions
will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering
convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they
manage to cross the border.  Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated
convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm
advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM.
Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates
and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail
appears too low to warrant an outlook area.

..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024

$$