ACUS48 KWNS 010847
SWOD48
SPC AC 010845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Wednesday/D4, an upper trough will be located over the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes, and will quickly continue north into Canada
as a secondary trough develops southeastward into the northern
Plains, eventually phasing over the region. This large-scale trough
is forecast to deepen over much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes,
and northeastern states, with upper ridging over the West.

A front will trail southwestward from the exiting upper trough on
Wednesday, and this will interact with substantial moisture over the
southern Plains. However, this is expected to be more of a rain
threat as shear weakens with persistent moisture advection toward
the frontal zone. Isolated strong to severe storms may still develop
from OK into TX, due to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE where the air mass has
a chance to heat. Predictability is low given expected antecedent
precipitation, but severe probabilities could be introduced in later
outlooks for a corridor of wind/hail along the trailing front.

From Thursday/D5 and beyond, the cold front will push toward the Mid
MS/OH Valleys and southward across TX, with a continued risk of rain
and thunderstorms there with weak flow aloft. Given the Great Lakes
region trough amplification and resultant northwest flow across the
Plains, little to no severe weather risk is anticipated through
Sunday/D8.

..Jewell.. 10/01/2023