← Previous October 1, 2023 3:45 AM
ACUS48 KWNS 010847 SWOD48 SPC AC 010845 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an upper trough will be located over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and will quickly continue north into Canada as a secondary trough develops southeastward into the northern Plains, eventually phasing over the region. This large-scale trough is forecast to deepen over much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and northeastern states, with upper ridging over the West. A front will trail southwestward from the exiting upper trough on Wednesday, and this will interact with substantial moisture over the southern Plains. However, this is expected to be more of a rain threat as shear weakens with persistent moisture advection toward the frontal zone. Isolated strong to severe storms may still develop from OK into TX, due to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE where the air mass has a chance to heat. Predictability is low given expected antecedent precipitation, but severe probabilities could be introduced in later outlooks for a corridor of wind/hail along the trailing front. From Thursday/D5 and beyond, the cold front will push toward the Mid MS/OH Valleys and southward across TX, with a continued risk of rain and thunderstorms there with weak flow aloft. Given the Great Lakes region trough amplification and resultant northwest flow across the Plains, little to no severe weather risk is anticipated through Sunday/D8. ..Jewell.. 10/01/2023