May 25, 2023 5:11 AM
FNUS73 KOAX 251011
FWSOAX
Spot Forecast for Pisgah Unit Burning...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
511 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Early morning radar indicates small scattered showers near the
burn area, and it is likely that at least one or two brief rain
showers have fallen on the burn site in the past 6 hours.
Scattered showers will remain in the general region for much of
the day, although most hours will be rain-free. It is one of those
days when it is hard to pin down exact time of a shower or storm
because development will be pretty sporadic. Temperatures should
warm to the lower 80s by afternoon, and if an afternoon storm
develops nearby, it could produce a gust up to 35 mph. Otherwise
expect persistent winds from the southeast with 20 ft winds of
10-13 mph and occasional gusts 18-20 mph.
Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 35 mph, but only if a
thunderstorm develops nearby during the afternoon hours.
Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 35-40 percent
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Scattered showers or
even a thunderstorm today. Most hours will be rain free.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 10 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds possible near thunderstorms. Max gusts even near
storms should be less than 30 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (72900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........29 26 27 24 43 44
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
Temp............62 67 72 77 79 78
RH..............81 68 59 50 45 46
20 ft wind......SE 11 SE 11 SE 11 SE 10 SE 11 SE 11
20 ft wind gust.14 14 12 12 14 14
Eye level wind..SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.10 10 9 9 10 11
Surface wind....SE 14 SE 14 SE 14 SE 13 SE 14 SE 14
Surface wnd gst.17 17 15 15 17 18
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1300 2200 5400 6000 3600
Transport wind..SE 14 SE 17 SE 15 SE 14 SE 14 S 16
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10006 15 37 65 73 57
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph
in the late evening and overnight.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 11 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 23
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 23
mph in the late evening and overnight. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (41200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5700 knot-ft) late in the
night.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........45 42 35 31 15 7
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Temp............77 74 67 65 62 59
RH..............47 51 61 61 57 54
20 ft wind......SE 11 SE 11 SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 SE 11
20 ft wind gust.14 14 16 17 18 18
Eye level wind..SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 9 SE 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.11 11 12 13 14 13
Surface wind....SE 14 SE 14 SE 13 SE 13 SE 15 SE 14
Surface wnd gst.18 18 20 21 23 22
Mix hgt (ft)....2600 600 500 500 500 500
Transport wind..SE 16 SE 14 SE 17 SE 17 SE 17 SE 16
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100041 18 7 7 8 7
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (89100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........7 3 3 7 11 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............56 60 69 74 79 80
RH..............57 50 41 35 30 29
20 ft wind......SE 10 SE 12 SE 12 SE 12 SE 13 SE 13
20 ft wind gust.18 18 17 16 16 16
Eye level wind..SE 8 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 10 SE 10
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 14 13 12 12 12
Surface wind....SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 SE 16
Surface wnd gst.22 23 21 20 20 20
Mix hgt (ft)....500 900 1900 3500 4900 5500
Transport wind..SE 16 SE 18 SE 18 SE 18 SE 18 S 18
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10005 12 30 60 83 89
$$
Forecaster...Barjenbruch
Requested by...Jeff Seago
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2313928.0/OAX
.DELDT 05/25/23
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL [email protected]