← Previous April 15, 2024 9:45 AM
FNUS73 KMPX 151445 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Vermillion Rx...MNDNR National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 945 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Vermillion Rx fire, relative humidity will be roughly 40-50 percent at ignition, before falling to 20-25 percent this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible over the next two to three hours, however they will not amount to much and elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the day. Light early morning winds will increase out of the east, sustaining between 10-15 mph this afternoon. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of rain showers late in the morning, then chance of rain showers early in the afternoon. Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 67. RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise East winds 9 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair /18400 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good /45200 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 10 to 16 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM Sky cover.......PC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC MC PC Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC Weather type....RW RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............54 57 60 63 65 67 67 67 67 65 61 58 RH..............45 37 32 29 27 24 26 25 25 29 35 39 20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 9 10 10 13 12 13 12 10 12 20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 15 15 17 16 17 16 16 18 Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E Transp wind spd.15 13 12 10 12 14 15 16 17 15 14 15 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the morning. Temperature.........Min 46. RH..................Max 68 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Good (43900 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (6000 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 14 to 23 mph shifting to the southeast around 25 mph early in the morning. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperature.........Max 55. RH..................Min 50 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 18 to 26 mph. Gusts up to 37 mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (78000 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 25 to 30 mph increasing to east 35 to 43 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Kevin Berens Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2410919.0/MPX .DELDT 04/15/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL [email protected]