← Previous December 9, 2023 1:03 PM Next →
FNUS22 KWNS 091904 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$