FNUS22 KWNS 041901

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

Thoughts expressed in the previous forecast remain on track (see
discussion below). Recent guidance continues to suggest that
elevated conditions with locally critical conditions appear to be
the most likely solution across the southern Great Basin. Slightly
stronger mid-level flow over southeast CA into the western AZ will
make northwestern AZ the most likely candidate for seeing periods of
critical conditions, though confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds
remains low.

..Moore.. 08/04/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020/

Cyclonic flow across the western U.S. will broaden and push into the
Southwest on D2/Wednesday. A more potent shortwave trough will
impact the Pacific Northwest and adjacent areas. Stronger flow aloft
will overspread much of the West with a deeper surface trough
expected to develop within the Great Basin.

...Southern Great Basin...
Surface winds are expected to increase to 15-20 mph during the
afternoon with a few terrain-favored locations seeing higher speeds.
RH will likely fall to 10-15% across most locations. Locally
critical conditions are possible, but upper-level winds will remain
modest enough that widespread elevated conditions are the most
likely scenario.

...Pacific Northwest...
With lift from the shortwave trough, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. This activity will
move northeastward during the evening. Given the storm coverage and
PWAT values, wetting rainfall will be possible in some locations.
However, the state of fuels across the highlighted area is such that
lighting ignitions will be a concern even without a more traditional
dry lightning setup.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...