← Previous May 29, 2023 3:14 PM

FNUS28 KWNS 292016

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the
Southwest through the extended period with a relatively higher fire
weather threat expected on D3/Wednesday. Confidence remains high in
the development of anomalously high-amplitude ridging across the
central/northern CONUS through the work week that will result in dry
conditions across parts of the Southwest and Great Lakes. While
drying fuels are expected in both regions, weak surface winds over
the Great Lakes will limit predictable fire weather concerns to
AZ/NM through next weekend.

...D3/Wednesday - AZ/NM...
Recent long-range guidance shows the eastward progression of the
upper low off the CA coast into the Southwest over the next 48-72
hours. Surface pressure falls within the left-exit region of the
attendant upper jet will support strengthening winds across AZ and
NM Wednesday afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably high
confidence in 15+ mph winds with swaths of 20-25 mph winds probable
across western to central NM. Antecedent dry conditions featuring RH
in the single digits to low teens and dry fuels will support a fire
weather threat as winds increase through the day. While areas of
critical conditions are probable, spread in ensemble guidance casts
some uncertainty into the coverage of such conditions.

..Moore.. 05/29/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...