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FXUS63 KDVN 280447
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1147 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...Updated for 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds are expected to be light tonight and Thursday.

- Mild late week and into the Easter weekend.

- Showers likely Friday night and again by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Tonight, rather benign conditions will be seen as high pressure 
settles in from the northwest. Winds will finally subside with light 
and variable winds by late evening. Skies will be generally clear 
with some mid level clouds overnight. Low temperatures will once 
again be in the lower 20s NW to upper 20s south of I 80. The degree 
and longevity of any cloud cover may keep temperatures slightly 
warmer. Some models hint at some precip (mainly flurries) 
skirting through the area near I 80 late tonight with some weak 
upper level waves aloft in cyclonic flow, but opted to keep the 
dry forecast going.

Thursday, there will be a mix of sunshine and some clouds as the 
ridge of high pressure remains over the area. Winds will be light 
from the west and southwest. Highs will range from the upper 40s
and lower 50s north of I 80, to the upper 50s and low 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Friday: Upper low in the northern Great Lakes region pushes 
into Quebec, allowing for a return of a zonal flow. This will 
bring milder temperatures into the forecast area, with highs in 
the mid to upper 50s along Highway 20 to the mid to upper 60s 
elsewhere.

Friday night: A disturbance in the zonal flow will bring a round of 
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. The gulf moisture is just 
being drawn northward so there is the potential for some spots to 
receive 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain.

Easter weekend: Continued rather mild with highs mainly in the mid 
50s to mid 60s. However, confidence in chances for rain is low as 
the GFS is dry, while the ECMWF brings in some rain Easter Sunday.

Early next week: Confidence is higher as both global models 
indicating another large/slow moving storm system (typical of early 
spring). This looks to be another widespread soaking rain and a few 
thunderstorms. The ECMWF/GFS has shifted the surface low farther 
south into central MO which should keep the threat of severe weather 
south of our forecast area. However, being still several days away 
the track of the low and strong warm front could still change. As of 
now, the NBM has a nice temperature gradient across our area, with 
highs only around 50 along Highway 20 to the mid 60s south. Then 
only in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Weak mid-level front will bring a cloud deck across the area 
this morning with a low confidence chance (< 20%) of a rain 
shower. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24
hours with light westerly winds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Speck