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FXUS63 KDVN 301129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
629 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Main Message: Another very warm late May day ahead with highs in 
the mid 80s to around 90 F. Luckily the humidity will remain low 
as dewpoints are only forecast to be in the 40s/50s this 

A large upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather over 
the Upper Mississippi Valley, leading to above normal temperatures
and dry conditions. Increasing low-level moisture in a return 
flow regime across central Iowa will result in scattered showers 
and storms developing this afternoon, well to the west of our 
outlook area. This activity could brush the far western counties 
during the evening to nighttime period; however, coverage will be 
decreasing and anticipate most locations to stay dry. Mild 
temperatures are expected for the overnight with lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Key Messages:

*Well above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming
 weekend with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and comfortable
 humidity for this time of year

*There are occasional chances for isolated to scattered showers
 and storms but most of the outlook area will likely stay dry

Overview: Upper level omega blocking pattern is forecast to 
strengthen this week and persist through the upcoming weekend, 
leading to hot and mostly dry conditions.

Wednesday and Thursday

Gradual influx of low-level moisture due to steady southerly 
winds, will push dewpoints into the mid 50s to around 60 F. 
Combining this increase in moisture with daytime highs in the 90s 
could be enough to kick off isolated showers/storms during peak 
heating. The main limiting factor for more widespread rain is the
absence of a mid-level shortwave and associated lift. Current 
thinking is the majority of the outlook area receives less than a 
tenth of an inch of rain during this period.

Friday through Next Monday

Blocking upper air pattern with a ridge extending all the way up 
into Northern Canada will continue to keep us hot and dry through 
the upcoming weekend. NBM probabilities for 0.25" or more of rain 
in a 24 hour period (for late this week into early next week) are
near or below 10%, and WPC has little to no rain forecast during 
this time. The persistence of the hot and dry pattern will likely 
worsen the flash drought conditions across eastern Iowa and 
northwest Illinois as we head into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

VFR to prevail today and tonight with high pressure in control 
bringing unrestricted visibility and light winds.




LONG TERM...Uttech