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FXUS63 KDVN 281033 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 533 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...Updated for 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance of a rain shower or sprinkle today and tonight - High confidence of showers and storms Friday night, and again early next week - Wide variety in temperatures early next week due to the precip chances && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 06z surface analysis showed an expansive area of high pressure covering the Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes, with a weak surface cold front stretching from Lake Michigan into southeast Iowa. Nighttime satellite showed a mid-level cloud deck stretching from central Iowa into far northwest Illinois, which was the result of a weak frontal boundary and WAA occurring along it. Temperatures as of 130 am ranged from 23 in Dubuque to 36 in Burlington. The surface high will quickly move south and east of the area today as ridging builds across the central CONUS. Several weak areas of 500 hPa CVA ahead of the ridging will track across area, which will produce mainly mid to high level clouds. A stray rain shower or sprinkle will be possible, with good agreement amongst many of the deterministic CAMs. However, this is low confidence as fcst soundings show plenty of dry air availible in the low levels that will need to be overcome first. Have introduced some low chance POPs (< 20%) with this forecast package for this afternoon and tonight, but expecting most to remain dry. Temperatures will be much warmer today with flow out of the south behind the surface high. Highs will range from the upper 40s along the Hwy 20 corridor to low 60s in northeast Missouri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Friday through Friday night... Ridging will centered across the Mississippi River Valley to start the day, with strong southerly flow at the surface bringing increasing temperatures and Gulf moisture into the area. Despite the increasing cloud cover, highs should easily climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s areawide. A stronger disturbance embedded in the zonal flow will move into the area Friday night, and will produce a weak surface low and trailing cold front as it tracks across Iowa. Increased lift from the surface low, combined with the increasing Gulf moisture and a strong LLJ, will lead to widespread showers and storms Friday night into early Saturday morning. Primary threats will be lightning and heavy rain with PWATs climbing to around one inch, though some storms may produce small hail given ample deep layer shear will be in place. Saturday... Daytime Saturday will be dry with lingering showers and storms exiting the region during the morning. Weak disturbances persisting in the zonal flow will keep clouds in place, but temperatures should have no trouble climbing back into the 50s/60s areawide. Easter Sunday through Tuesday... The aforementioned cold front will stall and set up shop across north central Missouri and Illinois on Easter Sunday, and will be the focus of our attention early next week. Increasing baroclinicity and strengthening flow against the front from a developing surface low in eastern Colorado and western Kansas will increase shower and storm chances across the area, especially nearer to the front in southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and northeast Missouri. These chances will persist through Tuesday as the low will be slow to progress east along the front. Latest deterministic guidance keeps the warm front south of the area, which should help keep our severe threat low. Regardless, rainfall could be heavy as latest NBM probs show medium to high chances (50-80%) of amounts over one inch along and south of Interstate 80. Will continue to monitor this period. Temperatures will be a challenge Sunday and Monday given the precip chances and warm front position. Current NBM favors a tight north- south temperature gradient with highs each day ranging from the upper 40s (Hwy 20) to mid 60s (northeast Missouri and west central Illinois). Tuesday night on... High pressure will follow for mid-week with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected. Latest NBM favors highs back in the mid to upper 60s areawide next Thursday with strong ridging building back across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/ ... Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Weak mid-level front will bring a cloud deck across the area this morning with a low confidence chance (< 20%) of a rain shower. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours with light westerly winds shifting to the east tonight. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...Speck