← Previous March 28, 2024 5:33 AM

FXUS63 KDVN 281033
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
533 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of a rain shower or sprinkle today and tonight

- High confidence of showers and storms Friday night, and again
  early next week

- Wide variety in temperatures early next week due to the precip
  chances

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

06z surface analysis showed an expansive area of high pressure 
covering the Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes, with a 
weak surface cold front stretching from Lake Michigan into 
southeast Iowa. Nighttime satellite showed a mid-level cloud 
deck stretching from central Iowa into far northwest Illinois, 
which was the result of a weak frontal boundary and WAA 
occurring along it. Temperatures as of 130 am ranged from 23 in 
Dubuque to 36 in Burlington.

The surface high will quickly move south and east of the area 
today as ridging builds across the central CONUS. Several weak 
areas of 500 hPa CVA ahead of the ridging will track across 
area, which will produce mainly mid to high level clouds. A 
stray rain shower or sprinkle will be possible, with good 
agreement amongst many of the deterministic CAMs. However, this 
is low confidence as fcst soundings show plenty of dry air 
availible in the low levels that will need to be overcome first.
Have introduced some low chance POPs (< 20%) with this forecast
package for this afternoon and tonight, but expecting most to 
remain dry.

Temperatures will be much warmer today with flow out of the south 
behind the surface high. Highs will range from the upper 40s along 
the Hwy 20 corridor to low 60s in northeast Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Friday through Friday night...

Ridging will centered across the Mississippi River Valley to start 
the day, with strong southerly flow at the surface bringing 
increasing temperatures and Gulf moisture into the area. Despite
the increasing cloud cover, highs should easily climb into the 
upper 50s to mid 60s areawide.

A stronger disturbance embedded in the zonal flow will move into the 
area Friday night, and will produce a weak surface low and trailing 
cold front as it tracks across Iowa. Increased lift from the surface 
low, combined with the increasing Gulf moisture and a strong 
LLJ, will lead to widespread showers and storms Friday night 
into early Saturday morning. Primary threats will be lightning 
and heavy rain with PWATs climbing to around one inch, though 
some storms may produce small hail given ample deep layer 
shear will be in place.

Saturday...

Daytime Saturday will be dry with lingering showers and storms 
exiting the region during the morning. Weak disturbances 
persisting in the zonal flow will keep clouds in place, but 
temperatures should have no trouble climbing back into the 
50s/60s areawide.

Easter Sunday through Tuesday...

The aforementioned cold front will stall and set up shop across north 
central Missouri and Illinois on Easter Sunday, and will be the 
focus of our attention early next week. Increasing baroclinicity
and strengthening flow against the front from a developing 
surface low in eastern Colorado and western Kansas will increase
shower and storm chances across the area, especially nearer to 
the front in southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and northeast
Missouri. These chances will persist through Tuesday as the low
will be slow to progress east along the front.

Latest deterministic guidance keeps the warm front south of the 
area, which should help keep our severe threat low. Regardless, 
rainfall could be heavy as latest NBM probs show medium to high
chances (50-80%) of amounts over one inch along and south of 
Interstate 80. Will continue to monitor this period.

Temperatures will be a challenge Sunday and Monday given the precip 
chances and warm front position. Current NBM favors a tight north-
south temperature gradient with highs each day ranging from the 
upper 40s (Hwy 20) to mid 60s (northeast Missouri and west central 
Illinois).

Tuesday night on...

High pressure will follow for mid-week with dry conditions and 
warming temperatures expected. Latest NBM favors highs back in the 
mid to upper 60s areawide next Thursday with strong ridging 
building back across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/ 
... Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Weak mid-level front will bring a cloud deck across the area 
this morning with a low confidence chance (< 20%) of a rain 
shower. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 
hours with light westerly winds shifting to the east tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck