FXUS63 KABR 300711
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Upper trof moving over the Northern Plains early this morning will 
be exiting the region during the morning, with most convection done 
by that time. Then the rest of the day looks to be fairly quiet with 
only isold showers/storms. The convection around the region will be 
mainly diabatically driven over the next couple days given a lack of 
any decent looking triggers sfc/aloft. A better LL boundary appears 
to exist over parts of MN and over the High Plains of NE/KS, this is 
where svr chances look better. But that said deep layer shear is 
still hard to come by and therefore organized convection looks 
unlikely through Wednesday. Temperatures will continue their recent 
runs above average across the region.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

An broad upper trough across the western CONUS and a Rex Block, more 
or less across the eastern CONUS will still be in place at the 
beginning of this period. It will remain the predominant upper flow 
pattern through the end of the week before evolving somewhat 
differently this weekend. The upper trough in the west will 
generally remain in place at that point, but the upper high across 
the northeast US will retrograde to the west across the Great Lakes 
by Friday and continue in a west-northwest fashion settling across 
the Northern Plains and southern Canada during the course of the 
upcoming weekend through the end of the period.

With southwest flow aloft continuing through the end of the week 
across our region, we'll continue to see periodic s/w energy rotate 
through the eastern edge of the upper trough leading to daily 
chances for precipitation. Hard to time out these disturbances but 
there will be periods of dry weather mixed in with the rain chances. 
Best time frame for showers and storms will be daily during peak 
heating of the afternoon into the evening. Although severe 
convection can't be totally ruled out, the environment should 
continue to remain unfavorable for any robust storms to get going. 
Perhaps by the end of the period, with the upper ridge progged to be 
centered moreso over our region, chances for precip will be 
diminished some versus earlier in the period. Above normal 
temperatures show no sign of changing much in the extended. Daytime 
highs and overnight lows will continue to follow a good 10 to 15 
degrees above normal for early June.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Still pockets of -TSRA/TSRA across the region and have included a VC 
mention in TAFs to account for this as confidence is low on a 
terminal being directly affected. A TSRA passing directly over a 
terminal may bring MVFR VSBY, but otherwise a VFR TAF forecast 
remains.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TDK